This old saying and special year were made for each other.
Updated January 2022. Scroll to the bottom to see the original post.
Summary
The old saw “Hindsight is 20-20” of course refers to the “20-20 vision” we have when looking back in time. The year 2020 was indeed one that many are happy to view in hindsight, if they survived it.
More details
This work depicts seven variables of interest during the first half of that infamous year, 2020. Data are from the United States only, because the US arguably made the year even more “special” than other countries.
The variables depicted for the first 6 months of 2020 are:
Deaths from COVID-19 – They rapidly escalated after the virus established community spread.
Presidential support of valid medical science - Sadly, this remained low.
Number of people unemployed – Were you “essential”? Able to work from home?
Protests per day - Includes all protests for all causes (anti-lockdown, racial injustice, police reform, etc.). Protests after George Floyd’s murder far eclipsed earlier anti-lockdown protests.
Toilet paper sales – Hey, we installed bidets.
Motor vehicle traffic – Do you remember how quiet the roads were?
Stock market value index - Dow Jones Industrial Average. How strange that this disconnects from everything else?
Along with the variables, one key event per month is shown (vertical red lines).
So now, do you remember what the seven variables did over the final six months of 2020?
Deaths from COVID-19 – When we first published this work in mid-2020, we asked if US COVID deaths that year would possibly exceed 300,000? They did. Many hospitals needed refrigerated trucks as overflow morgues.
Presidential support of valid medical science - Sadly, this remained low. “Dr.” Trump discouraged mask use throughout his presidency despite his knowledge early in the pandemic that viral transmission was primarily airborne. How many people would still be alive today if he had encouraged mask use?
Unemployment – Employment showed sluggish and incomplete recovery.
Protests – They rekindled easily, especially those for police reform.
Toilet paper sales – TP rolled towards normalcy except for blips before the Holidays.
Motor vehicle traffic – Planes, trains, and automobiles partially recovered their hum.
Stock market - The stock market continued its snow-blind march upward.
OK, so how are the variables doing now?
Many predicted full recovery in 2021. Well crap! Nobody imagined back in 2020 that US COVID deaths may eventually exceed one million people.
COMMENTARY
It is stunning that, now two years into this pandemic, many people still prioritize procreation of a microbe over full economic recovery, reopening of schools, and complete return to normal. And they do this in the name of freedom? Donald Trump recognized early that we are at war with a virus (March 2020).
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Is hindsight really 2020? Is the most “advanced” country on the planet really doing no better with the pandemic than “third world” countries? Are all of us in the US learning from our mistakes, or … ??
The adventure continues … for those of us who survive it.
To adapt from Donne:
“Never send to know for whom the virus mutates. It mutates for thee.”
REFERENCES
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104278/weekly-performance-of-djia-index/
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-27/coronavirus-us-protests-on-the-rise/12288686
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/daily-update-june-15-2020
https://ignaciomsarmiento.github.io/2020/07/11/Visualizing-Protests-for-Racial-Justice.html
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/
https://time.com/5867511/trump-coronavirus-bad-news/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/trumps-lies-about-coronavirus/608647/
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/06/covid-19-pandemic-in-the-us-the-trump-annotated-timeline
https://time.com/5806657/donald-trump-coronavirus-war-china/
Original post:
This work depicts seven variables of interest during the first half of 2020. Data are from the United States only, because the US has arguably made the year even more “special” than other countries. Protests per day includes all protests for all causes (anti-lockdown, racial injustice, police reform, etc.). We arbitrarily chose the Dow Jones Industrial Average to represent stock value — other indices showed slight differences. The variable “Presidential support of valid medical science” is shown because it is far easier to quantify than the opposite. One key event per month is labeled with a vertical red line.
What do you predict the seven variables will do over the remainder of 2020? How will hurricane season impact their course? Why does the stock market seem so disconnected from other realities of this year? Will the election create still more reasons to protest? Will US COVID-19 deaths in 2020 exceed 300,000? What will the Holidays be like? No matter what, it will be interesting.
If we make it through 2020, we’re already looking forward to attending our first virtual New Year’s Eve party! We look forward to viewing 2020 fully in hindsight as much as we look forward to a much more normal year in 2021.
Stay safe and stocked with toilet paper!
REFERENCES
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104278/weekly-performance-of-djia-index/
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
https://www.bls.gov/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA
https://www.statista.com/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-27/coronavirus-us-protests-on-the-rise/12288686
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/daily-update-june-15-2020
https://ignaciomsarmiento.github.io/2020/07/11/Visualizing-Protests-for-Racial-Justice.html
https://blog.gdeltproject.org/abc-news-coronavirus-anti-lockdown-movement-surges-in-the-us-after-donald-trumps-liberate-tweet/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/
https://time.com/5867511/trump-coronavirus-bad-news/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/trumps-lies-about-coronavirus/608647/
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/06/covid-19-pandemic-in-the-us-the-trump-annotated-timeline
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/congressional-testimony/oversight-trump-administrations-response-covid-19-pandemic-06232020